Mapping Those Most At Risk
When planning for climate disaster, many federal agencies assess risk on the scale of cities and counties. But in reality, neighborhoods within a city are impacted very differently from one another. A flood that hits Bayview-Hunters Point in San Francisco would pummel a dense, 96% minority community with a poverty rate nearly three times as high as the county average. That same flood in the Marina District would encounter a spread-out, predominantly white, and highly educated population with an average salary nearly ten times greater than Bayview-Hunters Point’s — making the area far more able to withstand the flood and bounce back.
With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s recent update to their long-running Billion Dollar Disaster Map, urban planners and citizens can see for themselves how disaster risk and vulnerability vary at the much finer “census tract” scale, representing about 4,000 people in a geographic area. Using the tool to look at “hazard risk” and “social vulnerability,” one can see how frontline communities like San Jose’s Alviso, Marin City, the San Rafael Canal District, East Oakland, and others stand out in stark contrast to the wealthier, whiter neighborhoods around them. The tool shows which census tracts have a significant number of people with characteristics that contribute to social vulnerability — for instance, those without vehicles, senior citizens, or the mobility-challenged. Or race, income, and educational level, which correlate with lower access to essential government programs and services that are essential to helping people and communities rebuild after a disaster.
As risk maps go — and there are an overwhelming number out there — NOAA’s is still a little clunky. The census tract view is hidden in a drop-down menu above and to the right of the map, and to look at historic flood hazard risk one has to manually de-select all six other hazard types. The Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s regional Community Vulnerability map is even more granular, analyzing vulnerability at the small “census block” scale (geographic areas of 3,000 people or less), and it also indicates contamination exposure. But hopefully NOAA’s update represents progress toward seeing pre-existing risk and vulnerability disparities within a city or county, and taking ameliorative steps before the next disaster exposes and widens them.
Other Recent Posts
Citizen Methane
Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, leaks from abandoned wells across the country. Curtis Shuck has been finding them by hand, well by well. But finding the leaks is where satellites and citizens come in.
Imprisoned with Climate Change
Climate change has a disproportionate impact on incarcerated Americans. Juan Moreno Haines, one of 2.3 million prisoners in the US, describes his experience.
Artists Circle Confronts Climate Displacement and Just Recovery
The climate crisis in driving the displacement of people around the world. In the midst of the pandemic, an artists circle began developing new approaches to the issue.
Future-Proof Homes?
Oona Khan dreams about her home of the future, after losing her Malibu retreat to fire. Caught in a quagmire of legal battles with Southern California Edison, and surging construction costs, Khan is still waiting to start construction.
The Case for Climate Castles
As climate change throws more extreme events at us, isn’t it time to think bigger, bolder, further ahead? Six young architects draw climate-resilient castles.
Looking for Justice at the Nexus of Housing and Climate Policy
How housing is built and who it is built for are not only equity questions, but also climate mitigation questions. When people can afford to live near their jobs, their emissions from commuting go down.
Bittersweet Beach Outing to See King Tide
On a clear morning in January, a group of tide worshippers gathered at the Santa Monica Pier to “celebrate the ocean and build our climate community,” said Laurene von Klan.
Safer at School from Wildfire Smoke?
Research confirms the drastic impacts wildfire smoke has had on school learning. But 16 East Bay schools now have updated air filters and more actions are in the pipeline statewide.
My Neighborhood Wised Up to Fire
When we fled the house in the Santa Cruz mountains that we had been living in for just nine months, we knew exactly two of our neighbors.
Extremes-in-3D
In Part 1 FIRE, KneeDeep explores where to expect debris flows from burn scars, how one neighborhood became fire wise, and what schools are doing to become safe havens.